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2024 Election Recap: a Path to Reshaping New Jersey Politics is Now Open

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The 45th President of the United States and now elected to be the 47th, President Donald J. Trump.
The 45th President of the United States and now elected to be the 47th, President Donald J. Trump.

The 2024 election is over, and Donald J. Trump has been returned to the White House. As of today, 52 Republican Senators will be seated in the upper chamber with him. Much vote-counting work remains to sort out the House of Representatives, but based on current vote totals, at least 217 Republican Congressmen are going to be seated. Several races are still too close to call but, as of the time of writing this piece, the current projection is that Republicans will pass the 218-seat threshold to retain control of the House.

When the dust settles, Trump will likely collect 312 electoral college votes along with a healthy 4.5 million vote lead in the national tally. This will look to some to be a landslide and give the appearance of a mandate for Trump when he enters office. The terms “landslide” and “mandate” need some context though. In light of more recent election cycles, Trump’s victory should give him a great deal of confidence at the start of his new administration. However, it is hard to describe any recent presidential race as either a landslide or imparting a true mandate.

Landslides and Mandates are a Thing of the Past

In the 20th Century, the average number of electoral college votes collected by the winner of a presidential election was 410. The largest political landslides in American history occurred in the 20th Century. In 1972, Richard Nixon collected 520 electoral college votes with an 18 million vote lead in the popular vote. In 1984, Ronald Reagan collected 525 electoral college votes plus a 17 million vote margin in the popular vote. And in 1936, in the greatest landslide in modern US history, FDR collected 523 electoral college votes (98.5% of the EC total then) and an 11 million vote surplus in the popular vote (scaled to the total population in 1936 is a larger margin than any election in modern history).

Of the three, only FDR’s win could be considered both a landslide and a mandate since FDR entered office in his second term with 75 senators and 334 reps from his party, while both Nixon and Reagan, despite their massive victories, faced a coalition government with Democrats retaining control of the House in both elections (Reagan’s historic win in 1984 actually resulted in a net loss of two seats in the Senate for Republicans leaving Reagan only a 2 seat majority in the upper chamber).

I share this as context because while Trump’s victory was significant and an irrefutable rejection by the American people of the policy menu offered by his opponent, we no longer live in a world where landslides and mandates exist. They are just simply no longer a feature of American politics. So we must temper our expectations of what is achievable by Trump’s administration, in particular in the next two years.

The Good News: The Supreme Court is Safe

There are indeed some truly exciting prospects regarding the future of the fight to preserve the right to keep and bear arms. Trump can potentially expand his lead in the Senate before the dust fully settles but even with a 52-vote lead, he will have a fairly straightforward path to making political appointments. We have all focused heavily on the fact that he will likely appoint at least two Supreme Court justices which could preserve the 6-3 originalist margin on the Court for decades to come. In New Jersey, there are currently two vacancies at the Third Circuit Court of Appeals and ten more justices are at or beyond retirement age on the Third Circuit. In the New Jersey Federal District Court, there are eight judges at or above retirement age, some of whom are currently in a semi-retired state. He is likely to appoint over one hundred federal judges across the US in the near term.

This is undoubtedly the single largest victory the 2A movement can claim in this election.

White House Staffers and Agency Appointments

In 2016, no one was more surprised by Trump’s victory than Trump himself. It was so much of a surprise that the Trump campaign never seriously put any planning into a transition plan or team and the administration spent the first two years on the backfoot trying to catch up (it then spent the next two years dealing with a barrage of impeachment proceedings that drained significant resources in the White House). Trump did not have 2A policy staffers at all for the first two years and very few staffers with that policy portfolio in the second two years. This time around will be radically different. The right people will be on board at the outset. In addition, he will likely move to replace certain key political agency appointments including a new Director of the ATF.

Those appointments will have a significant positive impact on the 2A fight nationally. Trump’s pick for Chief of Staff is New Jersey’s own Susie Wiles. Wiles is a deft campaign strategist but has limited experience in government. From this point forward, the press will likely harp on turnover in key White House positions but it’s worth bearing in mind that the average tenure of a Chief of Staff is around 15 months. Wiles is likely in that position because the starting point focus is going to be 2026 midterms. I suspect Wiles’ time as Chief may be even shorter but I think that move alone suggests the near-term goal for Trump’s second term is politics and less on governing.

Legislation is Likely to be Limited

What is unrealistic is the expectation that the election created a significant window to pass legislation on Capitol Hill. While Republicans will likely take a very small lead in the House when this election is fully over, some of those House seats are likely to end up vacancies as at least some House Republicans will take jobs in the administration. With a narrow to effectively no lead in the House, Trump is likely best served to focus on domestic economic policies with the potential for bipartisan support.

Legislation like the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act and the Hearing Protection Act are unlikely candidates for advancement, for at least the next two years. The possibilities for pro-2A legislation also largely depend on who will take over as Senate Majority Leader. Mitch McConnell will not be returning to that role. The names currently being floated are South Dakota Sen. John Thune (current whip), Texas Sen. John Cornyn, and Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso. Other names may emerge but to some degree, the prioritization of pro-2A legislation will be dictated by whomever takes the reins in the upper chamber. Thune received an A+ rating from the NRA, Barrasso received an A and while NRA has endorsed Cornyn in the past, he was instrumental in passing the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act in 2022, to his detriment with Texas voters.

Ultimately, the Trump Administration is likely going to give very little priority to 2A legislative issues, at least in years one and two. In order to achieve greater success on positive pro-gun legislation, we will all need to work to deliver more 2A-friendly Reps to Capitol Hill in the 2026 mid-terms.

New Jersey is a Swing State?

Perhaps the most important takeaway from this year’s election was just how close the vote margins were statewide in New Jersey, with Politico suggesting that New Jersey may now be a swing state! A massive shift in voter patterns in key parts of the state spell trouble for next year’s state elections if the Republican Party in New Jersey can preserve the momentum that Trump created. The “County Line” issue that drew national attention to the Democratic Senate primaries earlier this year is likely to sow some chaos in blue Legislative District primaries next year. We are particularly interested in Legislative District 35 where the saturation of empowered conservative Latino communities could re-write the rules on NJ politics. With Nellie Pou narrowly defeating Billy Prempeh for recently deceased Rep. Bill Pascrell’s House seat, the State Senate and both Assembly seats are on the ballot next year for LD35. A 34 point blue congressional district slipping down to a mere 4 points is a massive shot across the bow.

We are also very interested in Legislative District 16 which due to redistricting now includes more of Hunterdon County. LD16 was Jack Ciattarrelli’s former district when he was in the Assembly and the last time Ciattarrelli (the likely GOP pick for governor in 2025) was on the statewide ballot, LD16 was a very tight race. Hunterdon County voted for Trump on Tuesday with a 2.5 point margin.

In the end, for gun owners in New Jersey, Trenton is much more important than Federal elections. The real win for us is that Trump just revealed serious weaknesses in the Democratic hold over NJ politics. There is now a HUGE OPPORTUNITY to reshape the landscape in the Statehouse. Taking back LD16 and stealing LD35, a prize district that was held by Dems for 46 years, would force a complete reshuffling of NJ politics as well as likely clear a path for a Republican governor in this state.

This is a once in a lifetime chance for the 2A community to push back on state policies and give courts time to unwind unconstitutional restrictions on our rights.

If we fail to seize on this initiative, our fight in New Jersey will never end.

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“Absolutely phenomenal work! The way you’ve broken down this complex topic while maintaining depth is impressive. Your expertise and research quality are evident throughout.”

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