The Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act is Moving to the House Floor

On Tuesday, March 25, in a session of the U.S. House Judiciary Committee that lasted over 10 hours, H.R. 38, the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act, was passed out of the Committee and referred favorably to the House floor. The session was at times passionate and fiery and included some impromptu comedy sketches from Rep. Jared Moskowitz that appeared to be drawn by the writers of Saturday Night Live. But despite the theatrics (and a nearly 4-hour recess), H.R. 38, along with several pro-2A gun-related bills, are in motion on Capitol Hill.

Legislative History

H.R. 38 has been introduced in each of the last six Congressional sessions and has spent over ten years circulating on the Hill. It died in committee twice. It was referred to committees three times. In the 115th Congress, the Bill passed in the House and died in the Senate. It is important to note that in any given session of Congress, of the usual 15,000 bills introduced, only 10% of those on average are enacted, so it is not at all uncommon for a bill to be introduced over multiple sessions with the average real lifecycle of legislation being around 7 to 10 years.

Is This the Year?

In 2017, when H.R. 38 passed the House, it was one of several bills that the Trump Administration was considering, but it ultimately settled on the Fix NICS Act as the spot on the board to invest political capital. The Fix NICS Act was packaged through reconciliation in the Senate and passed as part of the 2017 omnibus appropriations bill. Given the composition of the Senate in this session, if there is hope for Concealed Carry Reciprocity going into law, it will likely need a similar path. But the first order of business will be clearing the House.

As of the spring of 2025, the GOP majority in the House is very tight. So tight that Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination for an ambassador role was withdrawn to preserve the narrow margin. 218 votes are needed in the House to pass legislation on to the Senate. The GOP has 218 seats in the House, so, in theory, a nonpartisan bill would need 100% of the GOP to pass something. H.R. 38 has at least 1 Democratic co-sponsor, Rep. Jared Golden from Maine, lowering the threshold to 217.

In 2017, when H.R. 38 passed the House, it had 213 co-sponsors and got 231 votes. Six Democrats voted for H.R. 38 that year, including Rep. Sanford Bishop (GA), Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX), Rep. Tony Gonzalez (TX), Rep. Ron Kind (WI), Rep. Collin Peterson (MN), and Rep. Kurt Schrader (OR). Reps Kind, Peterson, and Schrader have since left office. So, in the 119th Congress, assuming those Democrats who previously voted for H.R. 38 voted the same way in this session, that lowers the hurdle to 214. In other words, for this bill to pass the House, no more than 4 Republicans can break ranks.

New Jersey and New York Matter

New Jersey has a small Republican delegation. Rep. Jeff Van Drew is a co-sponsor of H.R. 38, a ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, and strongly supported the legislation in proceedings thus far, playing a significant role in its passage in the Committee earlier this week. Rep. Tom Kean, Jr., however, has a weak record on Second Amendment issues and sits in a very competitive district where it is unlikely he will be swayed to touch any issue deemed to be controversial (though the wisdom of that sentiment is debatable). Rep. Chris Smith, in comparison, is in a very safe district. He was elected in 1980 with President Ronald Reagan and has never faced any serious competition for his seat in his 45 years on Capitol Hill. Despite that, he has one of the worst voting records in Congress among the Republicans on Second Amendment issues.